The Ashes 4th Test Match Prediction: England versus Australia. Who Will Win?

Ashes 4th Test Match PredictionAshes 4th Test Match Prediction
TournamentAshes 2023
Timetable19th July - 23rd July 2023 at 11:00 GMT
PredictionAustralia to win
Odds6/4 (Bet £100 and win £250)
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Australia to win
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Odds : 31/20
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England kept their hopes of regaining The Ashes alive with a dramatic win over Australia at Headingley in the third Test, and in doing so ensured that the fourth test, which is due to be start at Old Trafford on the 19th is not a dead rubber. This would be great for Test match cricket as a whole as the series has been one of the most intriguing Ashes to date. Below is our cricket match prediction for those who want to do some cricket betting on this game.

England Team Preview

England have announced that they will make no changes to the squad that kept the series alive, so there will be the same XV players available for selection once more. While the squad is the same, we do expect there to be at least one change to the playing XI.

Jimmy Anderson, who was not at his best in the first two matches, was rested at Headingley, but we think that he will be recalled into the playing XI for this fourth Test. He might have been ineffective at Edgbaston and Lord's, picking up just three wickets at an average of 75.33, but Old Trafford is his home ground, and he has a really good record here. Ollie Robinson suffered a back spasm in the last Test, so Anderson should replace him.

They also have an important decision to make as to who bats at three. At Headingley, they opted for Moeen Ali in the second innings, but in our opinion, Joe Root should be bat at three as he is England's most gifted batsman.

Below are three England players that you should keep an eye out for during the 4th Test:

Mark Wood: Everyone loves watching express pace, and Wood has that in abundance. The way that he bowled at the Aussies in the third Test was a sight to behold, and their batsmen will not be looking for to facing his thunderbolts once again - at one point at Headingley he bowled a ball that was just under 97 mph. If you are looking to bet on the top wicket-taker for England, then Wood is a good bet.

Harry Brook: It is fair to say that he has not had the type of Ashes series that he would have hoped for, especially when you consider the way that he burst onto the international Test scene, but in the second innings at Leeds he showed us just how classy he is. During his way to 75 runs, he became the quickest player to make it to 1000 test runs in terms of number of balls faced - he scored his 1000th run from just 1058 balls. He is a quality batsman, and England fans will be hoping to see more of him at Manchester.

Chris Woakes: In every sports team, there seems to be one player that goes under the radar no matter how well they play, and this is Woakes in the England team. The last time he played for a Test for England was in March 2022, but he played at Leeds like he has never been away. He picked up six wickets in the match - all top seven batsmen - and took his team over the line with his batting skills.

Our predicted England XI: Crawley, Duckett, Root, Brook, Ali, Stokes, Bairstow, Woakes, Wood, Broad, Anderson.

Australia Team Preview

Australia head to Old Trafford knowing that all they need to do is avoid defeat in one of the remaining two Tests to retain the little urn. However, they will want to win outright and claim their first series win in England for 22 years.

When it comes to their playing XI for Old Trafford, the selectors have a number of decisions to make. In the Headingley Test, Mitchell Marsh came into the team and smashed a century, which makes it impossible to drop him. One player that is facing the axe is David Warner, who is currently averaging 23.5 runs in the series - once again, he has been Broad's bunny. They will be tempted to replace him with Cameron Green.

If they do this, then they need to find someone to open in his stead. They could move Marnus Labuschange or Travis Head up the order, or to open the batting with Marsh or Green. Since Warner started batting with Usman Khawaja, they have batted together 30 times, and Warner has been the first one dismissed on all but eight occasions. We also think that Scott Boland will be dropped, and replaced by Josh Hazlewood.

Below are three Australian players to look out for:

Usman Khawaja: The Aussie opener is the leading scorer in the 2023 Ashes with 356 runs to his name at an average of 59.33. In addition to this, he has also faced nearly twice as many balls as anyone else in the series so far - in six innings, he has faced a total of 908 balls. He is the glue at the top of the Aussie order, and the English bowlers will want to prise him out quickly.

Steven Smith: In six innings, one of Australia's best ever batsmen has scored just 190 runs at an average of 31.67. He scored 110 in one innings, so that means that his other five innings have seen him amass just 80 runs. He has had a lean series so far by his high standards, so it will be interesting to see if that continues in the fourth Test.

Mitchell Starc: The Australian quick missed out on the first Test, but he played the next two and showed his class. In the two Tests that he has played in this series, he has picked up 13 wickets at an average of just 23.38, although an economy of 4.44 might be a bit high for his liking. He is the bowler that the England batsmen will be most wary of.

Our predicted Australia XI: Khawaja, Labuschagne, Smith, Head, Marsh, Green, Carey, Cummins, Starc, Murphy, Hazlewood.

Toss Prediction

Winning the toss is usually seen as a big deal, and this might be true of Old Trafford more than anywhere else. The winner of the toss has gone on to win 37.65% of the time, while the loser of the toss has only been victorious 22.35% of the time out of a total of 83 Tests. If you want to do some toss betting on The Ashes, then, taking the above stats into consideration, we think that the winning captain will opt to bat first.

Pitch Conditions

The pitch at Old Trafford is known to be a batting paradise during the first innings, which is another reason why we think that the toss winner will opt to bat first and put a score on the board. From the previous five Tests that have been played here, the average first innings score is 404 runs, which drops to 200 for the 4th innings.

So, as the match wears on, batting becomes more difficult, emphasising the importance of the toss. Come the fourth innings, spin starts to come into the equation, so Murphy and Ali should big rolls to play at the backend of the match.

Our Match Prediction

So, if you are considering placing bets at betting sites for cricket, who is it that we recommend you put your money on to be victorious? Well, given the way that this series has panned out so far, it is another hard choice to make as it really could go either way. However, in the last Ashes series in England, Australia lost at Headingley and bounced back at Old Trafford, and we expect a repeat of that this time around.

Our match prediction: Australia to win.

Australia to win

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