T20 World Cup Match Prediction: India versus Afghanistan. 33rd Match. Who Will Win?

Pre-tournament favourites India have had a dismal T20. After two unexpected and heavy defeats against Pakistan and New Zealand, they lie joint bottom with Scotland in Group 2 on 0 points and are close to crashing out. Going into the game against Afghanistan the pressure on captain Virat Kohli’s team is intense. They must win to keep alive hopes of progressing to the semi-finals. In contrast Afghanistan have more than a realistic chance of reaching the last four with two wins from three matches.

Will we see a significant reversal of form by India, or will Afghanistan win and almost certainly qualify for the last four? Keep on reading this T20 match prediction to find out.

India Team News

India now find themselves as outsiders for the tournament. However, while there is still a chance, there is hope for their supporters. Should they beat Afghanistan, India then need to heavily beat Namibia and Scotland in their remaining games to boost their net run rate, and then hope Afghanistan beat New Zealand. But none of this matters if they fail to win against Afghanistan.

They are in this unexpected position due to lack of form by key players. India have simply not put enough runs on the board and compounded this by astonishingly only taking two wickets in both their games. KL Rahul came into the competition in great form with five 30+ scores in the IPL including three half centuries. However, he has scored just 3 and 18 runs and Rohit Sharma 0 and 18 runs. Fast bowler Jasprit Bumrah, the sole wicket taker, is the one exception and could be pivotal if Afghanistan play to attack with the bat. Moving Rohit Sharma down to number three in the last game did not work and should open at the top of the order with KL Rahul moving down to number four.

The experienced all-rounder Ravichandran Ashwin will replace Varun Chakaravarthy. If the Abu Dhabi wicket looks like taking spin, a debut could be in the offing for young right-arm spinner Rahul Chahar. Interestingly, Rohit Sharma is one of six players who have taken part in all ICC T20 World Cups since 2007.

Afghanistan Team News

By contrast, Afghanistan have somewhat exceeded expectations. They have played without much pressure due to lower expectancy and a final four place is in reach. They lie in second place in Group 2 with four points having won two of their three opening matches defeating Scotland (by 130 runs and setting the tournament’s highest total 190) and Namibia (62 runs). Their five wicket defeat to Pakistan was hard to take when a first T20 victory seemed in sight. However, their high net run rate of +3.097 sets then up for the semi-finals if they achieve their first T20 win against India.

Captain and all-rounder Mohammad Nabi is the team’s key player with 78 runs at a strike rate of 147 (3 matches). Leg spinner Rashid Kahn is the superstar of Afghanistan cricket and with young rising stars Mujeeb-Ur-Rahman (off-spin) and Qais Ahmad (leg-spin) all have experience of the T20 leagues around the world. Opponents have so far found all their spinners difficult to play. Veteran Asghar Afghan’s retirement after the Namibia game may see a place for Usman Ghani. Rahman Ur Rahman should also return after missing the last game due to injury. The opening batting pair of Hazratullah Zazai and Mohammad Shahzad have been making positive contributions and providing decent starts.

Toss Prediction

We expect to see the team winning the toss to bat first. Abu Dhabi has been a low scoring venue because of the slow wicket and long boundaries, so a total between 155-165 would be a good score. India are likely to press more than Afghanistan in the Powerplay.

Pitch Conditions

The Abu Dhabi pitch is playing slow with low pace and bounce which will suit the spin bowlers. With the dew there will be advantage to the team batting second. Afghanistan have experience of the surface having played Namibia here on Sunday, though a change of venue may suit India.

Our Prediction

India would normally be strong favourites to win but are they in the right frame of mind after the magnitude of their defeats? India have now lost their last four T20 matches, their worst run since 2009. They have to play well or they will be out.

Pressure of a different kind is on Afghanistan, who know that a win (leaving out the possibility of winning their match against NZ) can see them surprisingly make the last four, and that would be a super achievement.

It should be a tight match, and a close call, though India is our prediction to win and keep their hopes of progress alive, at least for now.

Our match prediction: